Nobel 2006 Predictions

Speaking of probabilities: What are the odds that your favorite writer will get the Nobel? Michael Orthofer of the Literary Saloon has been keeping track of various predictions for the Nobel. Once again this year, there is mention of Mahmoud Darwish and Adunis, but I don’t think it will go to them. (Why the academy has never selected an Arab poet is beyond me.) Michael thinks that Orhan Pamuk is too young, at 54, to get the prize. But Gabriel García Márquez was 54 when he got his. Plus, Pamuk has had a great year and with Turkey in the news over its ridiculous censorship law, that might just tilt the judges’ votes in his favor.